Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria—A model based analysis 2010–2050

This paper investigates the effects of policy, fuel prices and technological progress on the Austrian passenger car fleet in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse these effects a simulation model is used. We model the car fleet from a bottom-up perspective, with a detailed coverage of vehicle specifications and propulsion technologies. The model focuses on the technological trend toward electrified propulsion systems and their potential effects on the fleetʹs energy consumption and GHG emissions. To represent the impact of prices and income on the development of the fleet, we combine the fleet model with top-down demand models. We developed two scenarios for the time frame 2010–2050, using two different sets of assumptions for regulatory development and conditions of increasing fossil fuel prices and continuous technological progress in vehicle propulsion technologies. The results indicate that material cuts in energy consumption and GHG emissions can be achieved with changes to the political framework for passenger cars. Appropriate taxation of fuels and cars can stabilise demand for individual motorised transport and lead to an improvement in vehicle efficiency by fostering the adoption of efficient vehicle propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels.