Abstract :
This study analyses the pledges submitted by Korea and other major parties to the UNFCCC secretariat as part of the Copenhagen Accord, using the global CGE model. The analysis shows that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the developed countries decrease by up to 14.0% by 2020 compared to the 1990 level. These results show the need to raise the targets amongst developed countries in order to reach to the reduction levels (25–40%) recommended by the IPCC to meet 450 ppm CO2 eq. On the other hand, the full implementation of those pledges of Annex I and non-Annex I countries was found to contribute to the decrease of the global GHG emissions by about 15.9% compared to Business as Usual (BaU). Such results imply the need for developed countries to step up their reduction targets, as well as for developing ones to participate comprehensively and to reduce GHG emissions at a considerable level in order to enhance the environmental effectiveness of the Post-Kyoto framework hereafter. Meanwhile, it is analyzed that the implementation of voluntary target among major countries would reduce the global real GDP by 1.2%, and in the case of Korea, the real GDP was projected to diminish by 1.5%.
