Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil

Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective in the absence of serious environmental regulation. This holds, among others, for direct support of clean energy, voluntary energy conservation, technical standards on a limited set of products, unilateral stringent carbon pricing, and awaiting peak oil as a climate strategy. All of these suffer from “escape routes” that indirectly increase CO2 emissions and thus make the original strategy ineffective. On the other hand, environmental regulation alone may lead to a myopia-bias, stimulating early dominance of cost-effective technologies and a focus on incremental innovations associated with such technologies rather than on radical innovations. Although adopting a partial viewpoint keeps the analysis simple, we urgently need a more inclusive systems perspective on climate solutions. This will allow the formulation of an effective climate policy package that addresses the various escape routes.