An analysis of Chinaʹs coal supply and its impact on Chinaʹs future economic growth

Many people believe that Chinaʹs economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as Chinaʹs to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but Chinaʹs indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of Chinaʹs future coal supply will be very important for Chinaʹs future economic development. Our analysis shows that Chinaʹs ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×109 MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×109 MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to Chinaʹs future economic development.