Using natural gas generation to improve power system efficiency in China

Chinaʹs electricity sector faces the challenge of managing cost increases, improving reliability, and reducing its environmental footprint even as operating conditions become more complex due to increasing renewable penetration, growing peak demand, and falling system load factors. Addressing these challenges will require changes in how power generation is planned, priced, and dispatched in China. This is especially true for natural gas generation, which is likely to play an important role in power systems worldwide as a flexible generation resource. Although natural gas is commonly perceived to be economically uncompetitive with coal in China, these perceptions are based on analysis that fails to account for the different roles that natural gas generation plays in power systems—baseload, load following, and peaking generation. Our analysis shows that natural gas generation is already cost-effective for meeting peak demand in China, resulting in improved capacity factors and heat rates for coal-fired generators and lower system costs. We find that the largest barrier to using natural gas for peaking generation in China is generation pricing, which could be addressed through modest reforms to support low capacity factor generation.