Global pollution and its effect on the climate of the Arctic

This paper describes the potential effects of global pollution, primarily the greenhouse effect, on the climate of the Arctic. Climate models indicate an amplification of greenhouse warming in the Arctic but there are still many uncertainties about the magnitude and timing of the expected change. This paper focuses on these uncertainties by examining the changes observed in the temperature, sea ice extent, snow cover and permafrost regime of the Arctic. Since pollution is not the only climate-forcing factor, however, other external and internal driving forces are also examined, including solar influences, volcanic eruptions and changes in ocean circulation. Recent analyses of Greenland ice core data are beginning to cast serious doubt on our present understanding of the causes of climate change. Nevertheless, it is likely that global pollution is playing a major role in climate change. All the signals of change in the polar regions are consistent with the global greenhouse scenario. It cannot be stated unambiguously, however, that the greenhouse effect has already been observed in the Arctic, despite the fact that climate models indicate it to be largest there.