چكيده لاتين :
It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run
impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial
upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in 1970s
(1350s) and 1980s (1360s) gross domestic product (contained
oil) data of Iran. This article shows that the statistical evidence
does not warr~nt abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesis
at the 5% significance level. A key part of the argument is that
conventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood of
the trend-break alternative hypothesis. This is because they do
not take into account that; in practice, the data is chosen based
on pretest examination of the data.
