مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري -

چكيده لاتين :

The Empirical Green Function (EGF) technique, using the small earthquakes, recorded by a temporary seismological network, was applied to estimate the effect ofthe strong seismic motions, due to probablefuture great earthquakes in Tehran. The reconstruction oftwo earthquakes strongly felt in Tehran in the recent years, namely that of Changureh-Avaj (22/06/2002) and Kojour (28/05/2004) provide us the occasion to study the sensitivity ofour simulations and to calibrate the considered parameters. Four reasonable scenarios, were considered, including the occurrence of a strong earthquake on the Mosha, North-Alborz and Garmsarfaults. For these three faults, an earthquake of magnitude MW= 7.1 was simulated. For the last one, an event with magnitude MW= 7.6, corresponding to the historical earthquake reportedfor this fault was also considered.