كليدواژه :
International freight transport demand forecast , Transit routes , Zone of influence , Tajikistan railway project , EMME2
چكيده فارسي :
International freight demand forecast and finding the potential of a new
infrastructure in attrackting the traffic from opponent routes are two of the main
responsibilities of transport planners, in international transportation projects.
These are important for justifying the huge investment required for building a
new transport infrastructure as a link in a global transit corridor. On the other
hand, for designing the network and its technical requirements also, such data are
essential. These forecasts require upstream regional transportation studies and
detailed information on foreign trade between countries in zone of influence of
such projects, in terms of both tonnage and value, which are not easy to achieve
in most cases. Before this study, such forecasts were mostly done based on
scenario planning and scattered data which gathered from some rare sources
available in this respect. Of course, the accordance of these data with real
operation is always a big question. In this paper, for the first time, base on
reliable international sources, besides preparation of commodity flow matrix
between countries in zone of influence of Tajikistan’s New Railway line, using
two different models of elasticity and time series, the international freight
demand for this transit route was forecasted in form of an international contract
for the next 20 years. For this purpose, we used ArcGIS software’s capabilities
besides our calibrated EMME2 transport model.
Key words:, , foreign
trade, , Elasticity model, , ArcGIS,
