An economic analysis of optimal Solar energy portion in the energy supply: The case study of Isfahan City

Solar photovoltaic industry growth in recent years has surpassed any other renewable energy sources worldwide and the need for carbon neutral electricity will continue to increase. In developed countries solar PV is a proven and feasible technology, however in Iran it is almost inexistent. So the fact that most PV systems are installed in rich countries with low solar radiation instead of sunny Iran does not add up. For this reason, the aim of this report is to determination the optimal share of solar PV plant in Isfahan in Energy supply planning Relying on wind, solar and fossil power plant in next 10 years. Here, Isfahan has been selected as the sample of study. In this study, demand in the city, which is supplied by electricity grid. The developed model obtains necessary information from annual electrical consumption, potential of alternative energies in Isfahan, solar capital cost and new alternative technologies to estimate an optimal combination of manufacturing with minimum cost, considering emissions limitation and demand provision. solar capacity are considered as probable variable. Considering a particular solar radiation patterns established according to actual data and modeled via the time series analysis method. In order to solve optimization problem, chance constraint stochastic programming method and Goal planning are used. Obtained results in this paper indicate that due to importance of some parameters such as fixed and variable costs, in the next 10 years gas energy manufacturing portion will be more than other alternative technologies and grid. In general, manufacturing portion of solar energy increases by 8% in 10 years, thus it is not necessary to supply electricity from grid in order to meet annual increasing demand. And these results affect CO2 and NOx significantly, which are derived from Isfahan electricity supply.