Risk Analysis of Agile Supply Chain Based on QBD in E-commerce

E-commerce develops rapidly driven by information technology. The order-driven production with many varieties of small batchis prevalent in the supply chain of electricity business. However，high product variety and quick response, especially delivery ontime, are always conflicting. Considering the agile supply chain’s characteristics of e-business, an assemble-to-order system witha tandem queuing network in a cyclic changing environment is modeled basing on QBD (Quasi Birth and Death Process) theory.Considering the loss of delay delivery risk, a numerical analysis is used to search for the best lead time for e-suppliers.