Risk analysis of agile supply chain based on QBD in e-commerce

E-commerce develops rapidly driven by information technology. The order-driven production with many varieties ofsmall batch is prevalent in the supply chain of electricity business. However, high product variety and quick response,especially delivery on time, are always conflicting. Considering the agile supply chain’s characteristics of e-business,an assemble-to-order system with a tandem queuing network in a cyclic changing environment is modeled basing onQBD (Quasi Birth and Death Process) theory. Considering the loss of delay delivery risk, a numerical analysis is usedto search for the best lead time for e-suppliers.