ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺻﻔﺎت زﻧﺪه ﻣﺎﻧﯽ از ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺗﺎ يكسالگي در بز كركي رايني

Study of environmental factors affecting survival traits from birth to one year in Raeini Cashmere goat

ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺻﻔﺎت زﻧﺪه ﻣﺎﻧﯽ از ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺗﺎ يكسالگي از 3055 رﮐﻮرد ﺟﻤﻊ آوري ﺷﺪه در اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه پرورش و اصلاح نژاد بز كركي رايني واقع در شهرستان بافت استان كرمان طي سال هاي 1372 تا 1383 استفاده شد. از نرم افزار R و پكيج هاي مربوطه جهت تعيين عوامل محيطي موثر بر زنده ماني استفاده گرديد. ﺳﺎل ﺗﻮﻟﺪ، ﻣﺎه ﺗﻮﻟﺪ، ﺟﻨﺲ بزغاله و ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﮐﻤﮑﯽ وزن ﺗﻮﻟﺪ بزغاله ﺑﺼﻮرت درﺟﻪ دو ﺑﺮ ﺻﻔﺎت زﻧﺪه ﻣﺎﻧﯽ از ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺗﺎ يكسالگي تاثير معني دار P 0.05)) و ﺳﻦ ﻣﺎدر و نوع تولد ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﯽ داري داشتند (P 0.05). ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺧﻄﺮ در بزغاله هاي ﻧﺮ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ از بزغاله هاي ﻣﺎده ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ¬دﻫﺪ بزغاله هاي ﻣﺎده در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻣﺮگ و ﻣﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﺎوم ﺗﺮ از بزغاله هاي ﻧﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺧﻄﺮ در بزغاله هاي ﻣﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﺷﺪه در ﻣﺎه ﺑﻬﻤﻦ و اسفند ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از ﻣﺎه فروردين ﺑﻮده و ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺮگ وﻣﯿﺮ بزغاله هاي ﻣﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﺷﺪه در اين ماه ها ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از بزغاله هاي ﻣﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﺷﺪه در ﻣﺎه فروردين ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. وزن ﺗﻮﻟﺪ بزغاله ها ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت درﺟﻪ دو ﺑﺮ زﻧﺪه ﻣﺎﻧﯽ آن ﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﻮد ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان زﻧﺪه ﻣﺎﻧﯽ بزغاله ها ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ وزن تولد تا 3 كيلوگرم افزايش و پس از آن كاهش يافت.

To estimate affecting of environmental effects on Kids Survival analyses of Raini Cashmere goat up to one year from 3055 Raini Cashmere kids born between 1992 and 2003 were used. Using R software and related packages with Weibull model obtained hazard ratios. In this study sex of kids, month of birth and year of birth (p 0.05) unlike age of dam (p 0.05) were important for the survival traits. Male kids had greeter hazard ratios than female that indicate female kids were greater survival comparing with male. Hazard of mortality comparing February and March to April month were lower than 1, indicating that February –March born kids were at lower mortality than April-born kids. Year of birth had a significant effect on hazard of mortality for all traits. The birth weight of kids was significant (p 0.05) on survival rate as quadratic regression. Survival rate increased with increase birth weight until 3 kilogram and then decreased.