اثر چرخه تجاري بر پيش بيني سود توسط مديريت

The effect of business cycle on management earnings forecasts

هدف اين پژوهش بررسي تاثير چرخه ي تجاري بر پيش بيني سود توسط مديريت مي باشد. پيش بيني سود توسط مديريت داراي ويژگي هاي مختلفي از جمله وجود پيش بيني، فراواني پيش بيني، خطاي پيش بيني، سوگيري در پيش بيني ( بد بيني درپيش بيني در مقابل خوش بيني) و همچنين دامنه تغييرات پيش بيني سود مي باشد. در اين پژوهش اثر ركود اقتصادي بر هريك از ويژگي هاي فوق مورد آزمون قرار گرفته است. به منظور بررسي اثر چرخه تجاري بر ويژگي هاي فوق داده هاي مرتبط با 107 شركت طي 7 سال از ميان شركت هاي حاضر در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران به صورت حذف سيستماتيك جع آوري گرديده و طي چهار فرضيه مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. نتايج حاصل از آزمون فرضيات نشان داد كه ركود اقتصادي بر فراواني پيش بيني اثر خاصي ندارد و رابطه مثبت ولي بي معني ميان اين دو متغير مشاهده شد. در خصوص خطاي پيش بيني نتايج نشان داد كه رابطه مثبت و معني داري بين ركود اقتصادي و خطاي پيش بيني سود وجود دارد و در دوره ي ركود اقتصادي خطاي پيش بيني سود افزايش مي يابد. در خصوص بدبيني در پيش بيني نتايج نشان داد كه تاثير ركود اقتصادي بر بدبيني در پيش بيني مثبت و معني دار است بدين معنا كه در شرايط ركود اقتصادي بدبيني در پيش بيني سود توسط مديران افزايش مي يابد و در نهايت در خصوص ويژگي دامنه تغييرات پيش بيني سود كه نقطه مقابل ويژگي دقت پيش بيني سود توسط مديران محسوب مي گردد نتايج حاصل از آزمون فرضيات نشان دهنده اثر مثبت اما بي معني ركود اقتصادي بر ويژگي دامنه تغييرات پيش بيني مي باشد و بنابراين دامنه تغييرات پيش بيني سود مستقل از ركود اقتصادي مي باشد.

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the impact of the business cycle on the management earnings forecasts. Management earnings forecasts has various properties including forecast likelihood, forecast frequency, forecast error, bias in the forecasts (pessimism versus optimism) and forecasts range. In this research, the effect of recession on each of the above properties has been tested. Since 2005, Iran has been forced to disclose earnings forecasts by management; therefore managers are required to disclose earnings forecasts. For this reason the forecast likelihood has been out of one of the characteristics under test. In order to evaluate the effect of the business cycle on above properties, data related to the 107 companies during the seven years of the companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange has been selected by using the systematic elimination method and in four hypotheses were tested. The results of the research showed that the recession has no specific effect on the frequency of forecasts and positive but insignificant relationship between these two variables was observed. In the case of the forecasts error, the results showed that there is a significant and positive relationship between recession and earnings forecasts error and in the period of the recession, earnings forecasts increases. In the case of the forecasts pessimism, the results showed that the impact of recession on the forecasts pessimism is positive and significant, means in the recession, forecasts pessimism increases and ultimately in the case of the forecasts range that is opposite point of accuracy of earnings forecasts by management, the results of the research showed a positive but insignificant effect of recession on forecasts range and therefore the forecasts range is independent of the recession.