AN APPROACH FOR OBTAINING BASED EVALUATION OF CORRODED SUBMARINE PIPELINE BY USING COMPARISON BACKWARD ELIMINATION MODEL AND IMPROVING RELIABILITY ANALYSIS, CASE STUDY: OIL PIPELINE IN AB-KHARK ISLAND

Pipelines are becoming increasingly used for transferring oil products in both onshore and offshore zones. They are exposed to a wide range of threats, which inherit either from their immediate surroundings or their content. Corrosion, as the major threat to pipeline’s integrity, causes thinning and a considerable degradation in pipeline’s strength. This study aims to present a systematic approach for the probabilistic evaluation of aging pipelines. Firstly, both viewpoints on pipeline’s rupture are compared in terms of Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) as well as anticipated strength. Then, the most important contributing factors to holes’ formation and propagation are recognized using Backward Elimination (BE) method. Subsequently, a new reliability method is implemented to determine the Probability of Failure (PF). Finally, the recommended procedure is applied to an aged pipeline in the southern parts of Iran.