بررسي مقايسه اي روابط سياسي و امنيتي ايران و افغانستان در دوره كرزاي و اشرف غني

A comparative study of the political and security relations between Iran and Afghanistan during the era of Karzai and Ashraf Ghani

كشورهاي ايران و افغانستان داراي مزيت‌هاي نسبي سرزميني و انساني براي يكديگر هستند؛ اما عدم مديريت درست اين امتيازات و حضور قدرت‌هاي منطقه‌اي و فرا منطقه‌اي در افغانستان به دليل اهميت ژئوپليتيكي اين كشور و در نتيجه بروز تهديداتي مانند تروريزم و افراط‌گرايي ديني و نيز بروز مسئله قاچاق و تهديد امنيت ملي ايران از داخل كشور افغانستان، همچنين مسائل آب و تشديد اختلافات هيدروپليتيكي و نيز مشكل آوارگان افغاني و عدم مديريت در ست آن از سوي دو كشور، مانع از ايجاد يك رابطه پايدار و مبتني بر حسن همجواري بر محور واقعيت‌هاي ژئوپليتيكي شده است. بنابراين پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسي رابطه ايران و افغانستان پس از انقلاب خصوصا پس از سقوط طالبان و در دوره هاي رياست جمهوري كرزاي و اشرف غني انجام شد. روش مورداستفاده در اين پژوهش، توصيفي -تحليلي بوده كه با روش كتابخانه‌اي انجام شد. نتايج نشان داد كه مي توان مهم‌ترين پيامدهاي حاصل ازكمبود و ندادن حقابه رود هيرمند را كه موجد تنش در روابط سياسي دو كشور بوده‌اند چنين برشمرد: الف) اختلاف‌هاي دو كشور بر سر تعيين دقيق مرز رودخانه، ب) اختلاف‌هاي دو كشور در مقادير توزيع حقآبه و ج) تغيير در وسعت و قلمرو محدوده مرزي. حضور مهاجران افغانستاني در ايران از جهات اجتماعي- اقتصادي مسائل و مشكلاتي را براي كشور ايران فراهم آورده است از جمله: اختلاف شديد سطح فرهنگي بين مهاجران افغاني و ميزبانان ايراني يكي از مسائل و مشكلات اساسي در زمينه حضور مهاجران افغان در ايران مي‌باشد.

The countries of Iran and Afghanistan have relative territorial and human advantages for each other; However, the lack of proper management of these privileges and the presence of regional and extra-regional powers in Afghanistan due to the geopolitical importance of this country and as a result the emergence of threats such as terrorism and religious extremism, as well as the emergence of the issue of smuggling and threats to Iran s national security from within Afghanistan, as well as water and The aggravation of hydropolitical disputes, as well as the problem of Afghan refugees and the lack of management in this regard by the two countries, has prevented the establishment of a stable relationship based on good neighborliness based on geopolitical realities.Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the relationship between Iran and Afghanistan after the revolution, especially after the fall of the Taliban and during the presidency of Karzai and Ashraf Ghani. The method used in this research is descriptive-analytical, which was done with a library method. The results showed that during the time of Karzai and Ashraf, he depended on America. In the appearance of the current situation, there are two optimistic and pessimistic views about the future of Afghanistan. A group believes that the withdrawal of the American army, allies and NATO from Afghanistan will inevitably lead to another Lebanon (during the 1980s) and to stay in Afghanistan, another Israeli-Palestinian, and the United States will not be able to organize the current Afghanistan in a suitable time interval.If Afghanistan does not succeed in redefining the relations between various ethnic-religious groups, which should be based on coexistence and equality, and if it does not effectively deal with the current violence and centrifugal forces, the existing tensions will continue to be a permanent problem. They will remain in the political life of Afghanistan and the region. The other group believes that America, in line with its hegemonic strategy, will gradually transfer power to the Afghans, especially in security fields, with flexibility and tactical changes, guided by the capacities of the United Nations, NATO and other allies. It will use itself in Afghanistan in order to reduce its costs so that it stays in Afghanistan for many years. In the meantime, Pakistan also has strategic and vital interests in Afghanistan.In a situation where a non-aligned government is in power in Afghanistan, due to the differences between the two countries, securing Pakistan s national interests will depend on instability and insecurity in Afghanistan. Since Pakistan plays an effective role in the domestic scene of Afghanistan, it becomes necessary to establish more interaction with that country and reduce the areas of dispute that ultimately endanger Iran s national interests.