Author/Authors :
BAYAT, Tayfur İnönü Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey , ŞAHBAZ, Ahmet Gaziantep Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey , AKÇACI, Taner Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey
Title Of Article :
THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON THE TRADE DEFICIT: THE CASE OF TURKEY
Abstract :
In this study, we investigate the relationship between real oil price and foreign trade deficit in Turkey by using monthly data belonging 1992M1-2012M4 period. In this regard, we employ nonlinear cointegration, nonlinear causality and frequency domain Granger type causality analysis methods. Empirical findings imply that there is a uni-directional nonlinear causality running from real oil price to foreign trade balance. But the causation linkage exists on the medium-term. In the light of the findings, while the volatility in oil price affects foreign trade balance of Turkey, the effect disappears on the long run.
NaturalLanguageKeyword :
Trade Balance , Oil Prices , Nonlinear Cointegration , Nonlinear Casuality , Frequency Domain Causality
JournalTitle :
Erciyes University Journal Of Economics and Administrative Sciences
