tabet, slimane university of liège - department of astrophysics, geophysics and oceanography, unit for modelling of climate and biogeographical cycles, Liège, Belgium , tabet, slimane mouloud maamri university - faculty of biological sciences and agriculture sciences - department of biology, Tizi Ouzou, Algeria , tabet, slimane abdlahfid boussouf university center - sciences and technologies institute - department of life sciences and nature, Mila, Algeria , belhemra, mohammed university of mohamed kheidar - faculty of agronomic sciences - department of agronomic sciences, Biskra, Algeria , francois, louis university of liège - department of astrophysics, geophysics and oceanography, unit for modelling of climate and biogeographical cycles, Liège, Belgium , arar, abdlekrim mohamed boudiaf university - faculty of life and nature sciences - department of life and nature science, M’Sila, Algeria

Evaluation by prediction of the natural range shrinkage of Quercus ilex L. in eastern Algeria

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The aim of this study was to evaluate by prediction of the spatial distribution of Quercus ilex L. in its natural range in eastern Algeria. The maximum entropy method was used for modeling the species in potentially favorable areas under environmental conditions by linking the spatial occurrence and the environmental conditions. The following three explanatory parameter groups were used for the modeling: i) edaphic variables, ii) variables related to topography, and iii) climatic variables. The established predictions demonstrated that over the horizons 2050 and 2070, we shall lose 125,000 and 147,000 hectares, respectively. The most favorable areas for Q. ilex L. would appear to extend between the elevations of 1430 m by 2050 and reach 1650 m by 2070. The performance of the model used in this study was confirmed by the AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.929. The high elevations, especially those of the Saharan Atlas, would offer climatic refuges. These results represent a decision support tool for designing the best strategy of sensitization. and planning for the conservation of the holm oak.

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Climatic forcing , Ecological niche , Species distribution model , Holm Oak , Maximum entropy

Forestist

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