Erkan, Birol Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi - Kilis Meslek Yüksek Okulu - Pazarlama ve Dış Ticaret Bölümü, Turkey , Şentürk, Mehmet Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi - Meslek Yüksek Okulu - Pazarlama ve Dış Ticaret Bölümü, Turkey , Akbaş, Yusuf Ekrem Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi - Meslek Yüksek Okulu - Pazarlama ve Dış Ticaret Bölümü, Turkey , Bayat, Tayfur İnönü Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey

The Effect on the Indicators of Unemployment of International Crude Oil Price Volatility: Empirical Findings on the Case of Turkey

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Oil prices may have an impact on economic activity through various transmission channels. A number of recent studies have emphasized the role of oil prices and macro-economic variables. The aim of this paper is to study the short-term/long-term relationship between oil prices and unemployment in Turkey. The most common cause of increasing oil prices over the last thirty years has been a decrease in supply. Prices increased during the early 1970s as OPEC reduced supply. Again prices increased in the late 1970s and early 1980s as the collapse of the government of the Shah of Iran and subsequent war between Iran and Iraq threatened supply. We applied Granger causal modals to determine if oil prices “Granger Caused” unemployment for data between 2005:01 and 2009:12 in Turkey. However, we performed Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) to determine the relationship between to variables in question, to estimate these relationships and to determine the delay values. As a result, long-term relationship between oil prices and unemployment rate are available in Turkey, and changes in the unemployment rate do not affect oil prices, oil prices changes affect the unemployment rate (this effect is the opposite direction).

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Oil prices , Unemployment , Volatility , VAR , Granger , Turkey

Gaziantep University Journal Of Social Sciences

730