Author/Authors :
ÖCAL, Fatih Mehmet Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi - Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey
Title Of Article :
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY TENDENCY INDICATORS
Abstract :
In this study, long term relationship between indicators provided by the monthly manufacturing industry tendency survey and industrial production index was investigated. Data were taken for the period 2001-2008 as monthly basis and stationarity tests were conducted for 15 tendency indicators and industrial production index. Then Engle-Grange two stage cointegration analyses was implemented. Error correction models were constructed for the variables which have long term relationship according to cointegration analysis. Finally, by using error correction models and F test, existence of causality between variables were tested. Furthermore, in addition to Engle-Granger analyses, Johansen Cointegration analyses was implemented to investigate cointegration relationship between variables. As a result, it was found that only production indicator has long term relationship with industrial production index.
NaturalLanguageKeyword :
Industrial production index , manufacturing industry tendency indicators , manufacturing industry , unit root test , cointegration analysis
JournalTitle :
Celal Bayar University Journal Of Social Sciences
