مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - The Analysis of the Relationship between Net Inter-Provincial Migration and Socio-Economic Development in Turkey by Using Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis

Abstract :

The aim of the study was to determine and model the affiliation between net inter-provincial migration in Turkey and socio-economic development levels by using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis. The data sources of the study consist of annual migration related data (2007-2011) obtained from the Address-based Population Registry System (ABPRS) and the values given in the publication ‘Socio-Economic Development Ranking of Provinces (SEDI 2010) which was prepared by the Yıldız et al. (2010) and consists of the socio-economic development index (SEDI) values for provinces. In this study it was considered more appropriate to use the SEGE which is the single summarized value of multiple variables determining the development levels of provinces as an independent variable to explain net migration between provinces. The data established for the provinces were analyzed with the use of SPSS 11.5 and ArcGIS 9.3 programs. The executed OLS analysis revealed result of R^2=0.64 and the established regression equation (F 0,001) was found to be statistically significant. This signifies that there is a strong positive correlation between inter-provincial net migration and the economic development levels of provinces and that 64% of net migration are determined by the socio-economic development levels of provinces R^2=0.85(R^2 Adjusted 0.81) was obtained as a result of the GWR analysis of the same variables. While the distribution of local R^2’s reveals that the Marmara Region and its periphery have the highest net migration with the highest socio-economic development level among provinces, this affiliation grows weaker in the eastern and southeastern parts of Turkey. As a result, differences in development level of provinces in Turkey, where, and how to affect inter-provincial migration have been revealed.