Abstract :
Forests are one of the ancient forces, which supply healthy habitats for species and enhance the biodiversity in ecosystem-level, species-level and genetic-level. The valuable forests are homes for the numerous creatures and the sink of the atmospheric CO2. Although the forests have considerable benefits for the Earth, they recently face with the threat of deforestation and forest degradation. When the forests begin to transform into grasslands or agricultural areas, its biodiversity is damaged; because of the agricultural areas that enhance the biodiversity less than forest areas. The monitorization of forest cover change and the projections about their future become importance progressively. Coupled with these studies, the analysis of biodiversity living in the forests have significant potential to make difference for the protection of these fertile ecosystems. Bornova district of İzmir City in Turkey was evaluated for the study. In the study, the projection of the future forest cover was evaluated with Landuse Change Model (LCM), and it is seen that the trend seems like the same with the historical decrease. In 2033 projection, it has been found that the forest cover shall decrease against the increase of urban area pattern. This decrease shall affect the mammals of the forest ecosystems. In Bornova Forests, 48 endangered mammals are living per IUCN RedList as of 2014. The future forest cover projection shows also the decrease in the habitats of these endangered mammals associated with the deforestation/forest degradation. In the study, biodiversity was evaluated via Habitat and Biodiversity Model (HBM) in TerrSet environment by the calculation of alpha, beta and gamma diversity measurements, Sørensen Dissimilarity Index (SDi) and Range Restriction Index (RRi). In the study, it was determined that the species richness was %70 according to 2014-based alpha diversity measurement; but this value will decrease up to %28 in 2033. When the habitats of mammals were evaluated, the most habitat-loss will be emerged in the species as Cricetulus migratorius, Rhinolophus blasii, Myotis capaccinii, Tadarida teniotis and Myotis mystacinus.
NaturalLanguageKeyword :
LCM , Deforestation , Land cover , Prediction , HBM , Biodiversity , Bornova , İzmir
