zahour, brahim université ibn zohr - laboratoire d’etudes et recherches en economie et gestion, equipe de recherches appliquées en sciences economiques, Agadir, Morocco , rachidi, lahoucine université ibn zohr - laboratoire d’etudes et recherches en economie et gestion, equipe de recherches appliquées en sciences economiques, Agadir, Morocco

THE DYNAMIC OF THE LONG TERM OF REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE OF EQUILIBRIUM: CASE OF MOROCCO

31015

Where the world’s door opens outwards and as an instrument of external competitiveness to regulate the monetary policy, the change rate shall require more importance inside the economical policy of the country. This research work aims to understand the determinants of the real effective exchange rate of equilibrium in Morocco on the period 1980-2015, to estimate empirically the dynamics of the short and long term while situated by the result in the permanent regime to know the dynamic of the long term of the real effective exchange rate of equilibrium and to judge the effectiveness of the exchange rate policy in Morocco by determining the periods where the TCER was overvalued. The approach used in this paper is the BEER (behavioral equilibrium exchange Rate).In referring to the method of co integration, and the VECM model, our results confirm that the dynamic of the long term of the real effective exchange rate of equilibrium which is determined primarily by the terms of the exchange external, the rate of initiation, domestic investment, and net foreign assets .Also the study of the degree of misalignments of the dirham on the period 1980 2015, we highlighted the phase of overvaluation (1980-1983,2009-2010) and phase of under assessment (1985-1993), and a phase of (2011-2015),where the real effective exchange rate was close to its equilibrium level, this last phase is a positive signal for a successful transition to a flexible regime ,often claimed by the monetary authority national.

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real exchange rate of equilibrium , model VEC , misalignments

Revue Des Études Multidisciplinaires En Sciences Économiques Et Sociales

51