مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - CO_2 EMISSIONS FORECAST WITH NEURAL NETWORKS WITH: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract :

The relationship between environment and development haven’t lost popularity for a long time until today. The most incarnational indicator of this process is Paris Climate Summit in 2015. Turkey have stipulated to decrease greenhouse gas emission as 21% until 2030. On the other hand, as an emerging country Turkey has to develop and increase production and consumption. The development brings along with together environment pollution. The pollution of environment consists of releasing toxic gases like CO_2 to the environment. The most important source of toxic gases are energy production and consumption, industrial production, and energy demand for transportation. The others are weak reasons to pollute environment. In this respect, to forecast Turkeys’ CO_2 emission, it’s used GDP, energy production-consumption, energy use for transportation and greenhouse gas emission data for EU-28 and Turkey between 1990-2030 as quinquennium. As a result of Artificial Neural Network which one of the best model to forecast, CO_2 emission for 2020-25-30 are respectively 740,33 Mt, 1039,32 Mt ve 1244,13 Mt. It’s easy to say this forecast doesn’t overlap the guarantied value of Turkeys’ in Paris Climate Summit. If Turkey want to carry out its stipulation, have to increase energy efficiency and use renewable energy.