مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - DEMOKRASİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACAT VE İTHALATI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Abstract :

In general, studies focusing on the determinants of Turkish’s export supply and import demand used Granger causality test, VAR, Cointegration and ECM models and tried to explain relationship between export supply and import demand with following variables: national income and reel exchange rate and ignores socio-political factors. International studies forecast export supply and import demand independently using ordinary last square (OLS) estimation. In this study, we evaluated to effects of both economic, social and specially political (democracy) factors on the Turkish’s export and import with selected 98 trade partner of Turkey using annual data from 1981 to 2006. Twoway random effect and 3SLS models used for this analysis. The results showed that democratic countries trade with other democratic countries more than nondemocratic countries. At the same time, Lagrance Multiplier and Hausman test result showed that export and import are related to each other through error terms. Therefore, 3SLS model is the appropriate approach to forecast export supply and import demand.