مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - NON PERFORMING LOANS IN BANKS: A MODEL IMPLEMENTATION INTENDED FOR PREDICTIONS OF NON PERFORMING LOANS IN TURKISH BANKING SECTOR

Abstract :

Loan, which is a debt borrowed from loan institutions to be paid back with a certain cost by people who have saving gaps to meet their various needs; can fall into monitoring by not being paid partially or completely despite the fact that the maturity of the debt has passed 90 days. Non performing loans that carry a leading indicator quality in terms of the general state of economics, shows the solvency of the individuals and enterprise in economy, and also shows the active quality and risk level in banks. To predict the rate healthily enables the economic units to manage their policies and the banks to manage their financial statements effectively. Various studies are performed in literature, based on observing the non performing loan predictions and econometric models. For an effective risk management, it can be thought that using systems based on both approaches together can lead to more useful results in terms of establishing the control mechanism. Studies unique to Turkey are quite limited at present. In this study, a model presented. The statistical tests shows that the model is a good predictor. The model points at the fact that non performing loans have serios stock problems. In other words, if non performing loans in a certain period are managed well, even if economic conditions deteriorate in following periods, increase in non performing loans will be relatively limited.implementation intended for monthly based predictions of non performing loans in the sector of Turkish banking, is