Author/Authors :
SEVİNÇ, Volkan Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi - Fen Fakültesi - İstatistik Bölümü, Turkey
Title Of Article :
A GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF FOREIGN TOURISTS VISITING TURKEY, THE US DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE AND THE YEARS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS
Abstract :
Tourism revenue is one of the factors affecting the Turkish economy. The number of tourists visiting a country every year may be affected by some economic and social factors. The exchange rate of the US dollar is a currency which is globally used in trade. In this paper, after giving a brief methodology of the causality analysis, the causality relationship between the US dollar exchange rate, the number of foreign tourists visiting Turkey province and the years of economic crisis in Turkey is examined through a Granger causality analysis based on the data collected for the years between 1978 and 2011. At the end of the analysis it is determined that there is no Granger causality relationship between the American Dollar exchange rate and the number of foreign tourists visiting Turkey. However economic crisis is a Granger cause of the American Dollar exchange rate.
NaturalLanguageKeyword :
Granger causality analysis , Tourism and exchange rate , Unit root tests
JournalTitle :
The International Journal Of Economic and Social Research
