CHANGE IN LAND USE IN ELAZIĞ PROVINCE (2006-2018) AND THE SIMULATION OF 2030

43898

In this study, the change in land use in Elazig province and the factors affecting this change were evaluated. Changes in land use were analyzed with the “Land Use Change Modeler / Land Change Modeler”. The dimensions of the change are presented by the change matrix, the change maps and the gain-loss graphs. In order to explain the change that took place, current satellite images and socio-economic processes were examined with variables such as geomorphology, soil, geology, hydrography, and land capability. Using these variables and change matrices, land use simulation for 2030 was created. During the simulation process, first of all, land use projection was carried out with “Markov Chains”. Then, by using 6 independent variables, Artificial Neural Networks algorithm (ANN), transition areas probability map were created. Finally, a simulation map was obtained with the competition mechanism Cellular Automata (CA). The results show that there are major and remarkable changes in many land use classes. Especially settlement areas and agricultural lands, where human pressure is intense, come to the fore in this regard. In the future, these areas will undergo more change and transformation. According to simulation results, the area of open spaces with little or no vegetation, pastures and inland waters will decrease; agriculture lands, forests, bush and settlement fabric areas will increase.

702

Elazığ , Land Use , CORINE , Land Use Projection , CA , MARKOV , ANN , MARKOV

International Journal of Geography and Geography Education

723

International Journal of Geography and Geography Education