Impacts of climate change on food security and agricultural production: a scientific review

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In this review, first spatial and temporal assessment of main findings and results of the peer- reviewed studies related with the observed climate change and variability in the World and in Turkey were performed. Then, the impacts of climate change on food security and agri-cultural production including particularly the effects on crop yields were scientifically re-viewed with respect to various aspects of the issue particularly based on the peer-reviewed literature and the recent assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effects of climate change on agricultural crop and terrestrial food production have been evidently observed in several regions of the world. Negative impacts of the climate change and variability have been more common than positive ones. In addition to the observed cli-mate changes, climate model simulations generally have shown that frequencies and severities of the extreme weather and climate events will very likely change in many regions of the World during the 21th Century associated with estimated increases in surface and lower trop-ospheric temperatures, increased positive radiative forcing and accelerated and/or enhanced hydrological cycle. For instance, increased extreme weather and climate events and disasters including heat waves, droughts and floods will very likely interrupt stability of the food sup-ply. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security includ-ing availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive mod-el studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant in-creases, depending on emission scenarios, and the assumptions for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization.

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Agriculture , climate change , food security , extreme weather and climate events , climate model , carbon dioxide fertilisation

Aegean Geographical Journal

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Aegean Geographical Journal