Expected PalueDofALeneration Deficit: A supplemental Measure of Power System Reliability

The expected value of generation deficit under conditions of system load loss provides a new parameter for the measure of generation system reliability. As a supplement to loss of load probability, this new parameter proves useful for planning reliable generation systems. This paper presents the mathematical background and calculation procedure necessary to determine the expected magnitude of load loss, considering load and generation uncertainty. Also presented are numerical results displaying the relationship of the expected value of generation deficit to system planning parameters.