Expected-outcome: a general model of static evaluation

The expected-outcome model, in which the proper evaluation of a game-tree node is the expected value of the game´s outcome given random play from that node on, is proposed. Expected outcome is considered in its ideal form, where it is shown to be a powerful heuristic. The ability of a simple random sampler that estimates expected outcome to outduel a standard Othello evaluator is demonstrated. The sampler is combined with a linear regression procedure to produce efficient expected-outcome estimators. Overall, the expected-outcome model of two-player games is shown to be precise, accurate, easily estimable, efficiently calculable, and domain-independent