Experience with Weather Sensitive Load Models for Short and Long-Term Forecasting

A weather sensitive model for summer afternoon peak loads has been developed and applied to both short and long-term forecasting on the Virginia Electric and Power Company system. The model itself and its performance during the summer of 1972, are described. The model features a stationary load-weather function and separation of the base load and weather sensitive load components. This allows trending and independent forecasting of the two components and computation of summer severity statistics represented by the values of the weather function.