Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model of Human Decisionmaking for Human-Computer Communication

As the sophistication of computer technology increases, the number of systems in which both a human and a computer take controlling roles will increase. Effective communication between the human and computer is essential to prevent redundant or interfering actions. If a method for accurately predicting the human´s actions can be determined, the computer can use the predictions to complement the human´s actions rather than interfere with them. This correspondence develops and empirically validates a two-stage mathematical model of human performance in a situation with real time, multiple tasks, and process control. The model is a consistent and accurate predictor of human performance, correctly predicting over 80 percent of the subjects´ actions over a range of situations. A subsequent study is suggested to assess the value of this model when the computer is implemented as a parallel decisionmaker, selecting its own actions to complement rather than conflict with the human decisionmaker.