Title :
Probabilistic Assessment of Available Transfer Capability Based on Monte Carlo Method With Sequential Simulation
Author :
Rodrigues, Anselmo B. ; Da Silva, Maria G.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Eng., Fed. Univ. of Maranhao
Abstract :
The objective of this paper is to assess the chronological variations in the available transfer capability (ATC) caused by uncertainties associated with hourly load fluctuations and equipment unavailabilities. The system states resulting from these uncertainties are generated using the Monte Carlo method with sequential simulation (MCMSS). The ATC for each generated state is evaluated through a linear dc optimal power flow (OPF). The test results, with a modified version of the IEEE Reliability Test System, demonstrate that the time-dependent uncertainties have a significant impact on the ATC. These effects have been assessed through statistical indexes such as expected values, box plot, and percentiles
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; load flow; power system reliability; IEEE Reliability Test System; Monte Carlo method sequential simulation; available transfer capability; equipment unavailabilities; linear DC optimal power flow; load fluctuations; probabilistic assessment; statistical indexes; time-dependent uncertainties; Aggregates; Electricity supply industry; Fluctuations; Load modeling; Power generation economics; Power system economics; Power system planning; Power system reliability; System testing; Uncertainty; Available transfer capability (ATC); Monte Carlo method (MCM); composite system; linear programming; power system reliability;
Journal_Title :
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TPWRS.2006.887958
