Probabilistic Assessment of Available Transfer Capability Based on Monte Carlo Method With Sequential Simulation

Author

Rodrigues, Anselmo B. ; Da Silva, Maria G.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. Eng., Fed. Univ. of Maranhao

Volume

22

Issue

1

fYear

2007

Firstpage

484

Lastpage

492

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the chronological variations in the available transfer capability (ATC) caused by uncertainties associated with hourly load fluctuations and equipment unavailabilities. The system states resulting from these uncertainties are generated using the Monte Carlo method with sequential simulation (MCMSS). The ATC for each generated state is evaluated through a linear dc optimal power flow (OPF). The test results, with a modified version of the IEEE Reliability Test System, demonstrate that the time-dependent uncertainties have a significant impact on the ATC. These effects have been assessed through statistical indexes such as expected values, box plot, and percentiles

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; load flow; power system reliability; IEEE Reliability Test System; Monte Carlo method sequential simulation; available transfer capability; equipment unavailabilities; linear DC optimal power flow; load fluctuations; probabilistic assessment; statistical indexes; time-dependent uncertainties; Aggregates; Electricity supply industry; Fluctuations; Load modeling; Power generation economics; Power system economics; Power system planning; Power system reliability; System testing; Uncertainty; Available transfer capability (ATC); Monte Carlo method (MCM); composite system; linear programming; power system reliability;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8950

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/TPWRS.2006.887958

Filename

4077137