• DocumentCode
    1076118
  • Title

    Sensitivity of a Bayesian analysis to the prior distribution

  • Author

    Hill, Stacy D. ; Spall, James C.

  • Author_Institution
    Appl. Phys. Lab., Johns Hopkins Univ., Laurel, MD, USA
  • Volume
    24
  • Issue
    2
  • fYear
    1994
  • fDate
    2/1/1994 12:00:00 AM
  • Firstpage
    216
  • Lastpage
    221
  • Abstract
    Consider the problem of eliciting and specifying a prior probability distribution for a Bayesian analysis. There will generally be some uncertainty in the choice of prior, especially when there is little information from which to construct such a distribution, or when there are several priors elicited, say, from different experts. It is of interest, then, to characterize the sensitivity of a posterior distribution (or posterior mean) to prior. We characterize this sensitivity in terms of bounds on the difference between posterior distributions corresponding to different priors. Further, we illustrate the results on two distinct problems: a) determining least-informative (vague) priors and b) estimating statistical quantiles for a problem in analyzing projectile accuracy
  • Keywords
    Bayes methods; sensitivity; Bayesian analysis sensitivity; least-informative priors; posterior distribution; prior probability distribution; projectile accuracy; statistical quantiles estimation; uncertainty; vague priors; Bayesian methods; Distribution functions; Functional analysis; Information analysis; Physics; Probability distribution; Projectiles; Uncertainty;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Journal_Title
    Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • ISSN
    0018-9472
  • Type

    jour

  • DOI
    10.1109/21.281421
  • Filename
    281421