Theory of Probabilities Applied to Failures of Suspension Insulators

Nothwithstanding the recent improvements in porcelain insulators, failures are sufficiently common so that allowance must be made for them. A certain factor of safety is required, in the shape of extra insulation, to provide for the electrical unreliability of the insulators themselves aside from conditions of abnormal operating stresses. There are a wide variety of operating conditions which affect the amount of over-insulation required, and after having found the minimum number of insulators per string required for any given operating conditions the author points out a method of determining the amount of extra insulation desirable from an insurance standpoint according to the law of probabilities. Equations are developed from which the probability of failure for any given case or the ratio between such probabilities for any pair of cases may be determined directly. A numerical example is also given which shows the development of the theory of minimum annual cost for combined mechanical and electrical failures.