Title :
Effects of Load Forecast Uncertainty on Bulk Electric System Reliability Evaluation
Author :
Billinton, Roy ; Huang, Dange
Author_Institution :
Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon
fDate :
5/1/2008 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
Load forecast uncertainty is an important factor in long-range system planning and has been shown to have a significant impact on the calculated reliability indices in generating capacity studies. In general, a higher capacity reserve is required to satisfy a future uncertainty load than to serve a known load, at a specified level of reliability. Load forecast considerations are also important in composite generation and transmission system reliability studies, and their associated probability distributions. This paper examines the effects of load forecast uncertainty in bulk system reliability assessment incorporating changes in system composition, topology, load curtailment policies and bus load correlation levels.
Keywords :
load forecasting; power system planning; power system reliability; bulk electric system reliability evaluation; bus load correlation levels; load forecast uncertainty; long-range system planning; probability distributions; transmission system; Bulk system reliability assessment; load forecast uncertainty; load point and system indices;
Journal_Title :
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TPWRS.2008.920078