An Investigation of Two Methods for the Probabilistic Energy Production Simulation

Two methods for the calculation of expected energy generation have been proposed. These methods differ from the Baleariaux-Booth probabilistic simulation in that the concept of unserved demand is used. The PDF of hourly loads serves as the starting statistic. In one of the proposed methods, this has been approximated by multiple normal densities. The proposed methods were found to be computationally mere efficient than any of the existing methods including those presently developed ones using moments and cumulants. In addition, the accuracy of one of the new methods was found to be superior to the conventional methods using moments and cumulants.