Load Forecasting for Trnasmission Planning

This paper investigates the load forecasting needs of transmission planning, using the planning of two utility systems as an example. Two aspects are investigated. One, the effect of forecasting error on the planning of a transmission system, and two, procedures required to produce forecasts. Several conclusions are developed. Future substation loads are a function of both decisions in future distribution planning and also of the changing, nonuniform geographic distribution of load. Second, spatial correlation of error is as important in deternmining impact as is the average magnitude of the errors. Third, a transmiission system planned from an incorrect forecast may function but fail to meet contingency criteria. A procedure for estimating the benefit due to improved load forecasting is given.