Unit commitment risk with sequential rescheduling

Rescheduling decisions in power system operation are often made to commit additional generating capacity to meet the system obligation of load plus spinning reserve. These are based on the observation of some events (e.g. unit forced outage) which lead to possible capacity deficiency. A new concept is presented of unit commitment risk analysis which explicitly models the stochastic sequence of events associated with rescheduling decisions. This concept is compared with that of the PJM method via a simple example. Based on the concept of rescheduling, a stochastic model is proposed for risk analysis, and this model is illustrated via simulation results