Load Transfer Coupling Regression Curve Fitting for Distribution Load Forecasting

The planning of distribution facilities requires forecasts of future substation and feeder oads. Extrapolation based on a curve fit to past annual peak loads is currently the most popular manner of accomplishing this forecast. Curve fitting suffers badly from data shifts caused by switching as loads are routinely moved from one substation to another during the course of utility operations. This switching contaminates the data, reducing forecast accuracy. A new regression application reduces error due to these transfers by over an order of magnitude. A key to the usefulness of this method is that the amount of the transfer, and its direction (whether it was to or from a substation), is not a required input. The new technique, aspects of computer implementation of it, and a series of tests showing its advantage over normal multiole regression methods are given.