Computation of Upper and Lower Bounds on Reliability Indices for Bulk Power Systems

Bulk power system reliability analysis includes the computation of probability of system failure. This quantity may be evaluated based on the probability of individual component outage events which are classified as resulting in system failure or nonfailure. The amount of computation required increases exponentially with the numdber of components in the system. Therefore, an exact calculation of system failure probability is not feasible for even moderately large systems.