Composite Generation and Transmission Reliability Evaluation in Large Hydroelectric Systems

This paper describes the CONFTRA model developed for composite generation/transmission reliability evaluation in the Brazilian system. The network is represented by a linearized power flow model., Generation; rescheduling and load shedding are calculated by a fast linear programming algorithm. The dependence of generating capacity on the system hydrological conditions is explicitly represented. Monte-Carlo methods are used to select system states. The number of samplings is reduced by the use of "importance sampling" techniques. Sensitivity analysis with regard to both generation and line reinforcement is provided. A case study with the Brazilian Southeast system is presented and discussed.