Impacts of Electric Heat on Generation and Primary Fuel Requirements

Electric utilities are forecasting increased penetrations of electric heat as a result of potential shortages and higher prices of heating oil and natural gas. However, the amount, the type, and the insulation levels of the electric heated structures, and thus the resulting benefits and implications remain uncertain. A credible evaluation of electric heat benefits and implications requires an aggregate evaluation of generating capacity and electric demand over a realistic planning period. Methods for performing these evaluations have been developed by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. These methods couple a physically and weather based electric demand forecast model with a generation planning model that utilizes linear programming to calculate the corresponding optimal generation and operating strategy. This data is then postprocessed to calculate the incremental generation and primary fuel requirements for electric heat. This paper employs a New York State data base of electric generation, load patterms, electric heat forecasts and weather to calculate the generation and primary fuel requirements for electric heat during the 1980 to 1999 planning period.