A model to predict climate-change impact on fish catch in the world oceans

Water temperature plays a very important role in fish production. The assessment of the impact of water-temperature changes on fish catches in world fishery is essential for the sustainable management of world fishery resources. Fish catch includes different species, but using information analysis, it is shown that total fish catch can be used without significant loss of information about the dynamic properties of the system. A new method for the forecasting of the fish catch of the major fishing areas in the world´s oceans under global climate change (temperature) has been developed. This method predicts the tendency (increase or decrease) for fish catch, with quantitative predictor´s power, if the temperature is known. This method has been applied to the Indian Ocean to assess the climate-change impact on fish catch. Based on the temperatures predicted using the CLIMate-BiospheRE model for the years 2000-2100, a decrease of fish catch in the Indian Ocean, with the confidence of the predictor´s power at ≥ 90%, has been predicted.