Reliability Modeling of Generation Systems Including Unconventional Energy Sources

A method for reliability evaluation of electric power systems with unconventional energy sources, such as solar power plants and wind turbine generators, is presented. The fluctuating nature of energy produced by such unconventional units has a different effect on the overall system reliabilitv than conventional units. Methods described in the published literature appear to have several deficiencies. The method presented in this paper combines conventional and unconventional units into separate groups. The analysis proceeds by creating a generation system model for each group. The models of the unconventional groups are modified hourly depending on the limitations of energy. All the models are combined hourly to find the loss of load expectation and the frequency of capacity deficiency for the hour in question. This procedure is accomplished using a discrete state algorithm as well as the method of cumulants. Results obtained in a case study using the proposed method are described.