• DocumentCode
    120284
  • Title

    Prediction on Diesel Price in China with an Exponential Smoothing Method

  • Author

    Yang Ding ; Quan Wen ; Bo Shen

  • Author_Institution
    Shaanxi Open Univ., Xi´an, China
  • fYear
    2014
  • fDate
    4-6 July 2014
  • Firstpage
    593
  • Lastpage
    597
  • Abstract
    This paper starts from the changes of diesel price in China, and then makes the seasonal adjustment and trend decomposition based on the diesel prices time series data from December 2009 to January 2013 to predict the price of diesel by an exponential smoothing method. The results show that the diesel price (10 #) in China still has the rising trend and the predicted diesel (10 #) prices will reach a maximum of 10,161.84 Yuan/ton in May 2014 according to a multiplicative model. The accurately predicted diesel prices can serve to the strategy development in the related industries.
  • Keywords
    petroleum; pricing; time series; China; diesel price prediction; diesel price time series data; exponential smoothing method; multiplicative model; seasonal adjustment; trend decomposition; Economics; Fluctuations; Market research; Petroleum; Predictive models; Smoothing methods; Time series analysis;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Computational Sciences and Optimization (CSO), 2014 Seventh International Joint Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Beijing
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4799-5371-4
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/CSO.2014.150
  • Filename
    6923755