A basic framework for generating system operating health analysis

A probabilistic technique is presented in this paper to assess the operating reserve requirements in a system. In this approach, the generation system is classified into different system operating states. This technique combines deterministic with probabilistic indices to monitor the well-being. The system well-being as designated by deterministic criteria are identified as being healthy, marginal and at risk. A risk index designated as the generating system operating state risk (GSOSR) is defined in this paper as the probability of residing in an undesirable operating state. Technique together with the effect on the GSOSR and the system operating state probabilities of factors such as lead time, system peak load, load forecast uncertainty and generating unit derated states are illustrated by application to the IEEE-RTS (reliability test system)