Title :
Frequency effects on predictability of stock returns
Author_Institution :
Cracow Univ. of Econ., Kraków, Poland
Abstract :
We propose that predictability is linked with profitability in a complex manner. We look at ways to measure predictability of price changes using information theoretic approach and employ them on historical data for NYSE 100 stocks. This allows us to determine whether frequency of sampling price changes affects the predictability of those. We also study relations between price changes predictability and the deviation of the price formation processes from iid as well as the stock´s sector. We also briefly comment on the complicated relationship between predictability of price changes and the profitability of algorithmic trading.
Keywords :
information theory; pricing; profitability; share prices; stock markets; time series; NYSE 100 stocks; algorithmic trading profitability; frequency effects; information theoretic approach; price changes predictability measurement; price formation process deviation; stock return predictability; time series predictability; Algorithm design and analysis; Complexity theory; Context; Entropy; Estimation; Random variables; Stochastic processes;
Conference_Titel :
Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr), 2104 IEEE Conference on
Conference_Location :
London
DOI :
10.1109/CIFEr.2014.6924080