Application of a Monte Carlo simulation method for predicting voltage regulation on low-voltage networks

Estimating voltage regulation on Low-Voltage (LV) networks is "bread and butter" work for many electricity network engineers. Despite a universal appreciation that voltage quality, to the consumer, is a statistical problem driven by uncertainty in consumer coincident demands, general industry practice still uses empirical formulae based on the concept of an After Diversity Maximum Demand (ADMD). Lack of understanding of the distributional nature of consumer demand and the impact of this on four-wire LV networks restricts innovative and least-cost solutions to voltage regulation problems. Solving these problems will also lead to better understanding of the impacts of fuel switching and consumer side distributed generation. This paper summarizes research work on Monte Carlo modeling of residential electricity demand and its application to LV regulation problems. Validity of the method is demonstrated by comparison of predicted distributions of delivered voltage to actual voltage recordings for three case studies. The relevance of this modeling technique is discussed, and its application to fuel switching and distributed generation problems are promoted.